Sunday, January 29, 2012

My 18th Screen Actors Guild Awards Predictions

The 18th Annual Screen Actors Guild Awards will be held on January 29, 2012 (January 30 here in the Philippines at 9 am via Velvet Channel with primetime telecast at 10 pm and replay on February 4, Saturday at 9 pm) and as always here are my predictions:

Film

Best Performance by a Cast Ensemble
“The Artist”
“Bridesmaids”
“The Descendants”
“The Help”
“Midnight in Paris”

Winner: “The Artist”
Close Second: “The Help”
Wildcard: “Bridesmaids”

I initially predicted The Help will easily win this but I think The Artist will take it all the way to the Oscars just like Slumdog Millionaire and The King's Speech did (they beat films with bigger ensembles and stronger acting showcases because they are the films to beat in the Oscars). But the large cast and strong acting of actors of both The Help and Bridesmaids should never be counted out.

Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Demian Bichir – “A Better Life”
George Clooney – “The Descendants”
Leonardo DiCaprio – “J. Edgar”
Jean Dujardin – “The Artist”
Brad Pitt – “Moneyball”

Winner: George Clooney for “The Descendants”
Close Second: Brad Pitt for “Moneyball”
Wildcard: Jean Dujardin for “The Artist”

George vs Pitt once again and both haven't won a SAG yet. Well Clooney did as part on the Ensemble of the TV drama ER in the 90s but no solo SAG for him yet and he has the momentum so I'm giving him the edge. If the votes split between the two A-Listers, I think the win will go to Dujardin.

Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Glenn Close – “Albert Nobbs”
Viola Davis – “The Help”
Meryl Streep – “The Iron Lady”
Tilda Swinton – “We Need to Talk About Kevin”
Michelle Williams – “My Week with Marilyn

Winner: Viola Davis for “The Help”
Close Second:Meryl Streep for “The Iron Lady”
Wildcard: Michelle Williams for “My Week with Marilyn"

Davis vs Streep but I think the Guild will give it to Davis since Streep already won in 2008 for Doubt so I think they will support Davis this year. A vote split could pave way for Williams sneaking in to get the top prize.

Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Kenneth Branagh – “My Week with Marilyn”
Armie Hammer – “J. Edgar”
Jonah Hill – “Moneyball”
Nick Nolte – “Warrior”
Christopher Plummer – “Beginners”

Winner: Christopher Plummer for “Beginners”
Wildcard: Nick Nolte for “Warrior”

I can't see anyone but Plummer winning this one (especially that Albert Brooks is not in the running) but if there's a potential upset here it should be Nolte for his powerful performance in Warrior.

Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Bérénice Bejo – “The Artist”
Jessica Chastain – “The Help”
Melissa McCarthy – “Bridesmaids”
Janet McTeer – “Albert Nobbs”
Octavia Spencer – “The Help”

Winner: Melissa McCarthy for “Bridesmaids”
Close Second: Octavia Spencer for “The Help”
Wildcard: Jessica Chastain for “The Help”

Admittedly this is a gutsy prediction as Spencer has the momentum right now but I think the TV actors in this guild will rally to support McCarthy and could give her a surprise win. Chastain is also pretty much in contention as her amazing body of work the previous year will speak well to the actors and give her the award instead.

Best Stunt Ensemble
The Adjustment Bureau
Cowboys & Aliens
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 2
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
X-men: First Class

Winner: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 2
Close Second: X-men: First Class
Wildcard: The Adjustment Bureau
TV

Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Comedy Series
“30 Rock”
“The Big Bang Theory”
“Glee”
“Modern Family”
“The Office”

Predicted: "Modern Family"
Close Second: "The Big Bang Theory"

All but The Big Bang Theory won already and with Modern Family more popular than ever this season I think it's almost a certainty they will again this year. But The Big Bang Theory is very popular and they might reward the only non-winner in this category although the snub over two-time Emmy winner Parsons is making me think otherwise.

Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Drama Series
“Boardwalk Empire”
“Breaking Bad”
“Dexter”
“Game of Thrones”
“The Good Wife”

Winner: "Breaking Bad"
Close Second: "Boardwalk Empire"
Wildcard: “Game of Thrones”

Tough category to predict and to bet against HBO but I'm guessing Breaking Bad speaks well to the actors and this might be the year they reward the show.

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Comedy Series
Alec Baldwin – “30 Rock”
Ty Burrell – “Modern Family”
Steve Carell – “The Office”
Jon Cryer – “Two and a Half Men”
Eric Stonestreet – “Modern Family”

Predicted: Steve Carell for “The Office”
Close Second: Alec Baldwin for "30 Rock"
Wildcard: Ty Burrell for “Modern Family”

Baldwin won for the last 5 years but I think this will be the year it will end and SAG will honor the surprisingly Emmy-less Steve Carell for his memorable turn as Michael Scott in The Office. Emmy winner Burell could sneak in as well if the Modern Family love is strong

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Comedy Series
Julie Bowen – “Modern Family”
Edie Falco – “Nurse Jackie”
Tina Fey – “30 Rock”
Sofia Vergara – “Modern Family”
Betty White – “Hot in Cleveland”

Winner: Betty White for “Hot in Cleveland”
Wildcard: Sofia Vergara for “Modern Family”

Legendary White just turned 90 recently and well she is still well-loved by this guild (she got a surprise nod for her Hallmark TV Movie!) so she will likely pull a repeat win here. Vergara is such a scene stealer and it's the type of performance that they usually honor (see David Hyde Pierce's and Megan Mullaly's multiple wins with Frasier and Will & Grace, respectively).

Outstanding Performance a Male Actor in a Drama Series
Patrick J. Adams – “Suits”
Steve Buscemi – “Boardwalk Empire”
Kyle Chandler – “Friday Night Lights”
Bryan Cranston – “Breaking Bad”
Michael C. Hall – “Dexter”

Prediction: Kyle Chandler for “Friday Night Lights”
Alternate: Steve Byscemi for "Boardwalk Empire"
Wildcard: Bryan Cranston for “Breaking Bad”

Chandler could repeat his Emmy win here although Buscemi might repeat as well. It's really a tough category especially that three time Emmy winner Cranston is in the mix. Cranston has never won a SAG award but this might be the year. But I'm pulling for Chandler, a long time TV actor will get his due for the final season of his critically acclaimed show.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Drama Series
Kathy Bates – “Harry’s Law”
Glenn Close – “Damages”
Jessica Lange – “American Horror Story”
Julianna Marguilles – “The Good Wife”
Kyra Sedgwick – “The Closer”

Predicted: Jessica Lange for “American Horror Story”
Alternate: Julianne Marguilles for “The Good Wife”
Wildcard: Kathy Bates for “Harry’s Law”

Lange definitely made headlines with her performance in American Horror Story and her Hollywood status will cement her for the win. But never underestimate SAG darling Marguilles to win again or veteran Bates to pull off a surprise.

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Television Movie or Miniseries
Laurence Fishburne for Thurgood
Paul Giamatti for Too Big to Fail
Greg Kinnear for The Kennedys
Guy Pearce for Mildred Pierce
James Woods for Too Big to Fail

Winner: Greg Kinnear for The Kennedys
Close Second: Guy Pearce for Mildred Pierce
Wildcard: Laurence Fishburne for Thurgood

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Television Movie or Miniseries
Diane Lane for Cinema Verite
Maggie Smith for Downton Abbey
Emily Watson for Appropriate Adult
Betty White for The Lost Valentine
Kate Winslet for Mildred Pierce

Prediction: Kate Winslet for Mildred Pierce
Close Second: Maggie Smith for Downton Abbey
Widlcard: Betty White for The Lost Valentine

Best Stunt Ensemble
Dexter
Game of Thrones
Southland
Spartacus: Gods of the Arena
True Blood

Winner: Game of Thrones
Close Second: Spartacus: Gods of the Arena
Wildcard: Southland

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