Tuesday, January 24, 2012

My 2012 Oscar Awards Nominations Predictions

Tonight (in Philippine time of course) is the announcement of the 84th Academy Awards nominations! Anyway, here are my predictions which is basically educated guess from various precursors and I threw in some "wildcard" picks as well:

Best Picture

The Artist
The Descendants
Midnight in Paris
The Help
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

The nominees can be anywhere from 5 to 10 this year and I think 6 movies will make the final cut. Moneyball, The Girl with The Dragon Tattoo and War Horse could all make it as well but I was thinking none of these films are on the #1 rank of voters. Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy missed almost all of the precursors but the so-called British block could propel it and its impressive showing on the BAFTA (which shares some Academy voters) is a sign that it could make it.

Best Director

Michael Hazanavicius, “The Artist”
Alexander Payne, “The Descendants”
Martin Scorsese, “Hugo”
Woody Allen, “Midnight in Paris”
Terrence Malick, "The Tree of Life"

Four out of five are DGA nominees and are locks for Best Picture nominees slot. The other one, Malick, is my one wildcard guess as The Tree of Life is such a polarizing film but those who loved it, really loved it. And this is director's type of film so there could be a strong support for Malick

Best Actor

George Clooney, "The Descendants"
Jean Dujardin, "The Artist"
Brad Pitt, "Moneyball"
Leonardo DiCaprio, "J. Edgar"
Gary Oldman, "Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy"

Basically I got all the 4 SAG nominees excluding the surprise nod for Demian Belchir which could be a wildcard as well but like my rationale for predicting Tinke, Tailor, Soldier, Spy for Best Picture, the BAFTA showing and the british bloc could catapult Oldman for a nomination. Michael Fassbender could also make it but missing SAG was a big blow and I still think the movie's subject matter is something that would not appeal to the voters.

Best Actress

Viola Davis, "The Help"
Meryl Streep, "The Iron Lady"
Michelle Williams, "My Week with Marilyn"
Tilda Swinton, "We Need to Talk About Kevin"
Rooney Mara, "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo"

4/5 SAG nominees as well I just replaced Glenn Close with Rooney Mara. I think it will be a close call but I give Mara a slight edge due to the movie's strong Guild showing which could mean that the movie was received well by the academy and Mara could have a late surge of votes. Close's a veteran but her performance and the movie had lukewarm receptions and the it barely made an impact at all in the precursor so she could be forgotten

Best Supporting Actor

Christopher Plummer, "Beginners"
Kenneth Branagh, "My Week with Marilyn"
Albert Brooks, "Drive"
Nick Nolte, "Warrior"
Brad Pitt, "The Tree of Life"

SAG nominees Jonah Hill and Armie Hammer did not make my cut and I replaced them with Brooks who had a strong showing on critics groups before the SAG snub and is actively campaigning (although in a funny way of course) on Twitter and my wildcard guess is Brad Pitt for Tree of Life, he had the best reviews of his career on that role and I'm thinking maybe he could squeeze in this field (as a sort of afterglow effect as well for his Moneyball performance). This is an open field I must say and we could be in for a nominee who came out of nowhere (I'm betting on Max Von Sydow for Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close for possible shocker).

Best Supporting Actress

Bérénice Bejo, "The Artist"
Jessica Chastain, "The Help"
Octavia Spencer, "The Help"
Shailene Woodley, "The Descendants"
Melissa McCarthy, "Bridesmaids"Justify Full
I was thinking of including McCarthy or not. She had a strong showing with SAG and BAFTA nods on her belt already but I'm still apprehensive if the Academy, know to be conservative, will really recognize such a raunchy role but then again my residual love for this former Gilmore Girls actress overpowered my apprehension and predicted her. I really hope she makes it. Woodley's nominations is in limbo as well with her missing SAG and BAFTA but I think she has an edge over Albert Nobb's Janet McTeer because the latter's movie is basically toast while Woodley could be carried The Descendants which is expected to get a lot of nominations.

Best Animated Feature Film

"The Adventures of Tintin"
"Arthur Christmas"
"Arrugas (Wrinkles)"
"Chico and Rita"

How I wished How to Train Your Dragon and Tangled were released this year instead. Anyway, Rango and TinTin are locks for nominations. Arthur Christmas didn't set box office records on fire but was well received and it comes from a well-respected Animation studio. I don't know which foreign/arthouse animated films will make it so I predicted them both leaving out big movies like Puss in Boots, Kung Fu Panda 2, Cars 2, Happy Feet 2 and Rio because the reception for those movies range from bad to mediocre. My personal wish is for Winnie the Pooh to make it but it was too small (and short) of a movie. Critical reception is good but I think it will be lost in the shuffle but if there's one possible nomination that would be delight me is Winnie the Pooh making it.

Best Adapted Screenplay

"The Descendants"
"The Help"
"The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo"

Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy could knock out The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo though but I'm giving the latter an edge because the source material is hard to condensed in 2 hours and base on the movie reviews (haven't seen this one yet) it did a good job so this might appeal to the writing branch.

Best Original Screenplay

"Midnight in Paris"
"The Artist"
"A Separation"
"Margin Call"

The first 3 nods are locks and the last two are just wild predictions because this is an open field as well.

Best Film Editing

"The Artist"
"The Descendants"
"Midnight in Paris"
"Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy"

I predicted all these films to be nominated for Best Picture so I think they are the frontrunners as well to make it here although it's not necessary for a Best Picture nominee to get a Best Film Editing slot.

Best Art Direction

"The Artist"
"Midnight in Paris"
"Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy"
"Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2"

I wanted to include Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows here because the movie's art direction is just impressive but it's a tough category to crack and I think Harry Potter will take the blockbuster slot.

Best Cinematography

"The Tree of Life"
"The Artist"
"War Horse"
"Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy"

I think the first 4 films are locks and once again if my prediction that Tinker, Tailor, Soldier Spy will have a strong showing with the Academy they could be nominated in this category as well

Best Costume Design

"The Artist"
"The Help"
"Jane Eyre"

I didn't like Immortals but the costumes were amazing especially the gods. I know they usually reward period pieces here but I'm hoping Immortals could strike a chord to the voters.

Best Makeup

"The Artist"
"Albert Nobbs"
"The Iron Lady"

The Artist did a good job replicating the "look" of 20s Hollywood stars while "Nobbs" is about a woman masquerading as a man so that's like an obvious pick and in The Iron Lady the make is all about Margaret Thatcher's different phases in her life from young to old

Best Original Score

"The Artist"
"The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo"
"Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy"
"War Horse"

The Artist should easily win this because well the movie is all about its score right?

Best Original Song

"Lay Your Head Down" from "Albert Nobbs"
"The Living Proof" from "The Help"
"Life's a Happy Song" from "The Muppets"
"Coeur Volant" from "Hugo"
"Hello, Hello" from "Gnomeo and Juliet"

If Life's a Happy Song is snubbed I would be so sad.

Best Sound Editing

"War Horse"
"The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo"
"Super 8"
"Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2"

Best Sound Mixing

"The Artist"
"War Horse"
"Super 8"
"Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2"

Super 8 really did a great job in the sound department (just watch the train crash scene and you'll understand why) so I hope my predictions for them in these categories will happen later tonight.

Best Visual Effects

"The Tree of Life"
"Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2"
"Rise of the Planet of the Apes"
"Captain America: The First Avenger"

I think Captain America will make it simply because they made a "skinny Chris Evans" so perfectly. I'm a bit apprehensive with Rise of the Planet of the Apes, while the job with Andy Serkis' Cesar was fantastic, the climax of the scene featuring a bunch of apes is not as polished but I guess the work on Cesar and the other apes is strong enough to warrant a nomination.

Best Foreign Language Film

"A Separation," Iran
"Pina", Germany
"Footnote," Israel
"In Darkness," Poland
"Warriors of the Rainbow: Seediq Bale", Taiwan

A Separation is a lock, Pina is the second most buzzed pictureamong the 9 finalists, Israel usually does well in this category, Poland's entry is about the academy's favorite subject: holocaust and Taiwan's entry is a grand historical drama epic film which could impress the voters.

1 comment:

The Criterion Collector said...

Just take a look who's who during the Golden Globes and there is a 99.8 % chances the same people will win the the Academy Awards this year...